By Professor Abderrahmane Mebtoul
University Professor, State Doctor, International Expert
The war that now openly opposes Iran to the United States and their regional allies has entered, since mid-July 2026, into a phase of unprecedented gravity. After strikes targeting military, nuclear, and oil installations, a new strategic threshold is crossed: attacks on seawater desalination infrastructure, the true backbone of survival for the Gulf States.
The risk no longer lies solely in a surge in oil prices or a disruption of global energy flows. It now touches on a much more vital resource: water.
While the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a quarter of the world’s oil exports pass, remains under the threat of closure, military operations now extend to energy and water infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and Iran.
In the Islamic Republic, over 90% of crude oil exports pass through the strategic terminal of Kharg, which has become a top target. Strikes against Bandar Abbas, the main Iranian port complex that accounts for over 55% of the country’s foreign trade and nearly 85% of container traffic, further exacerbate the logistical and commercial disorganization of the Iranian economy.
In this new geography of conflict, the main beneficiaries remain Russia and the major producers whose exports do not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
Paradoxically, while the Middle East holds over 40% of the world’s oil reserves, oil prices remain relatively stable. Brent is trading around $88 per barrel, WTI around $82, while European gas is trading around $60 per megawatt-hour. The markets seem to factor in the assumption of a lasting crisis without an immediate disruption of global supply, although this stability remains extremely fragile.
Energy Infrastructures Become Prime Targets
The installations currently exposed represent the heart of the global energy system.
Among the main production fields are Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the largest conventional oil field on the planet; South Pars, shared between Iran and Qatar, the world’s largest natural gas field; and Masjed Soleiman, the first oil field discovered in the Middle East.
Refineries are also top targets. The complexes of Ruwais in the UAE, Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf, and Samref in Yanbu on the Red Sea play a crucial role in processing hydrocarbons for international markets.
Export terminals are equally strategic.
The gas complex of Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s leading center for natural gas liquefaction, is reported to have suffered significant damage. According to Qatari authorities, it would take three to five years to restore the initial production capacities.
The Iranian terminal of Kharg, a vital hub for the country’s oil exports, also remains under constant military pressure.
Water Becomes a Strategic Weapon
But the most worrying development lies elsewhere.
The Middle East is one of the most arid regions on the planet. Without desalination, several states would simply be unable to ensure their daily supply of drinking water.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries depend on desalination for 70 to 90% of their water consumption, with rates exceeding 90% in Kuwait and around 70% in Saudi Arabia.
These countries alone account for nearly 40% of global desalination capacity.
In other words, desalination plants have become strategic infrastructures as vital as oil fields or power plants.
Some of the most important ones include:
- Ras Al Khair (Saudi Arabia): nearly 3 million cubic meters of water per day, with an investment exceeding $7 billion. This massive hybrid installation supplies Riyadh, among others.
- Jebel Ali (UAE): over 2.2 million cubic meters per day.
- Fujairah (UAE): over a million cubic meters daily.
- Taweelah (UAE): around 910,000 cubic meters per day.
- Jubail (Saudi Arabia): nearly 800,000 cubic meters per day.
- Umm Al Quwain (UAE): about 680,000 cubic meters per day.
- Sorek (Israel): nearly 640,000 cubic meters per day, one of the most efficient installations in the world.
- Shuaiba (Saudi Arabia): nearly 600,000 cubic meters per day.
A simultaneous neutralization of several of these installations would, in a matter of days, trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, depriving tens of millions of people of drinking water.
A Global Energy Vulnerability
Desalination is now a major industrial sector.
According to the International Desalination Association (IDA), the installed global capacity reaches nearly 100 million cubic meters of water per day, compared to just a few tens of millions two decades ago.
Technological advancements have significantly reduced costs. The price of desalinated water per cubic meter, which once exceeded a dollar, is now below $0.50 in several recent projects in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
However, nearly 44% of the production cost remains directly related to energy. Any simultaneous destruction of electrical infrastructure and desalination units would create a particularly formidable domino effect.
A Threat That Goes Beyond the Middle East
This crisis now transcends the regional framework.
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the destruction of energy and water infrastructure, would pose a major risk to the global economy: slowing growth, persistent inflation, disruption of logistics chains, and lasting tensions in energy markets. The scenario of a global stagflation can no longer be ruled out.
But the real challenge is water.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the scarcity of fresh water is already one of the main factors of instability in the 21st century.
In South Asia, over 300 million children under 18 years old lack sufficient access to clean drinking water, especially in Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan.
In Africa, with a population now exceeding 1.4 billion, only about 500 million have regular access to safe drinking water, while barely 290 million have basic sanitation services. Inequalities are particularly pronounced in rural areas, where four out of five residents lack access to clean water.
Conclusion
Contemporary conflicts are fundamentally changing in nature.
Long focused on controlling oil and gas, geopolitical rivalries now revolve around the infrastructures that directly determine the survival of populations.
Desalination plants have become prime military targets because they concentrate the vital link between energy, water, and national security.
The hypothesis of massive destruction of these installations would trigger a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented magnitude, potentially causing massive population displacements, long-term destabilization of the Middle East, and a ripple effect on the global economy.
The 21st century could mark a historic turning point: after oil wars, perhaps it is now time for water wars. The specter of a “water apocalypse” is no longer science fiction; it now stands as one of the main geostrategic threats of our time.
